Nigeria is poised to gain a $34 billion economic boost, amounting to nearly a quarter of the $142.7 billion cumulative output benefit expected globally by 2030, provided the World Health Organization (WHO) achieves its malaria reduction goals, according to a study by Oxford Economics Africa.
The study highlights that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could increase by a total of $34 billion if the WHO targets are met, which aim to reduce both the incidence of malaria and mortality from the disease by 90% within the next six years.
The increase in productivity and reduction in health-related costs would contribute significantly to this economic boost.
The report
The WHO’s ambitious goals are set against a backdrop of stalled progress in combating malaria due to decreased funding and the need for new solutions to counter growing resistance to existing treatments.
- However, recently released vaccines offer a promising avenue for progress.
- The report, released by Malaria No More UK and the RBM Partnership to End Malaria, highlights the economic benefits of meeting these targets.
“People who fall sick from malaria, particularly young children, require rapid treatment and care,” the researchers noted. “This is often paid for through out-of-pocket expenditure and increases the burden of unpaid care on families, primarily mothers, which holds back their potential for economic engagement.”
Economic benefits of malaria reduction
If the WHO’s 2030 malaria goals are achieved, several African countries would see significant boosts in their GDPs:
- Nigeria: $34 billion
- Kenya: $9.4 billion
- Angola: $8.5 billion
- Côte d’Ivoire: $7.5 billion
- Tanzania: $7.4 billion
Sub-Saharan Africa bears the brunt of malaria, with nearly 620,000 deaths annually. Despite the challenges, eight African countries, including Ghana, Cameroon, and Malawi, have integrated recently approved malaria vaccines into their childhood immunization programs, with at least 10 more countries expected to follow suit this year.
- The study also revealed that a 10% reduction in malaria cases could result in a 0.11 percentage-point increase in annual GDP growth per capita.
- This reduction would also enhance trade, with Nigeria, the country most affected by malaria, expected to see a $4.8 billion increase in exports over the period.
Projected increase in exports from malaria-endemic countries (2023-2030)
- Nigeria: $4.8 billion
- Angola: $3.6 billion
- Democratic Republic of Congo: $2.2 billion
- Ghana: $2.2 billion
- Côte d’Ivoire: $1.8 billion
The report estimates that achieving malaria reduction goals could generate an additional $31 billion in exports for some of the most affected malaria-endemic countries in Africa.
This includes an almost $4 billion rise for G7 countries, with the US and the UK expected to see increases of almost $1.5 billion and over $450 million, respectively.
The impact of climate change
Africa faces additional challenges from climate change, which exacerbates the spread of infectious diseases and complicates malaria control efforts.
As the region least responsible for global warming, Africa suffers disproportionately from its effects, making malaria patterns harder to predict.
The international vaccine alliance Gavi is set to publish its “investment opportunity” on June 20, detailing the funding needed for malaria control and elimination programs. This will mark the first fundraising effort by Gavi with two available vaccines.
“The analysis shows that investing in malaria control and elimination programs doesn’t just save lives — it’s also economically smart, for malaria-endemic countries and their international partners,” the researchers emphasized.
